FRIC/Finance Seminar with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
FRIC Center for Financial Friction and the Department of Finance are proud to announce the upcoming seminar with Arvind Krishnamurthy, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University.
Arvind Krishnamurthy will present:
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Authors:
Zhiguo He, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business and NBER
Arvind Krishnamurthy, Northwestern University, Kellogg School of Management and NBER
Abstract:
Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation听adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation.听We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an听equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic听steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to听systemic risk states. The model allows us to examine the transition from 鈥渘ormal鈥� states to systemic听risk states. We calibrate our model and use it to match the systemic risk apparent during听the 2007/2008 financial crisis. We also use the model to compute the conditional probabilities听of arriving at a systemic risk state, such as 2007/2008. Finally, we show how the model can听be used to conduct a macroeconomic 鈥渟tress test鈥� linking a stress scenario to the probability of听systemic risk states.
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